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Branch of applied probability theory
Decision theory or the theory of rational choice is a branch of probability, economics, and analytic philosophy that uses expected utility and probability
Decision_theory
Measure of value difference between best possible decision and made decision
In decision theory, regret aversion (or anticipated regret) describes how the human emotional response of regret can influence decision-making under uncertainty
Regret_(decision_theory)
Theory of behavioral economics
theory is a theory of behavioral economics, judgment and decision making that was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. The theory was
Prospect_theory
School of thought within decision theory
Causal decision theory (CDT) is a school of thought within decision theory which states that, when a rational agent is confronted with a set of possible
Causal_decision_theory
School of thought within decision theory
Evidential decision theory (EDT) is a school of thought within decision theory which states that, when a rational agent is confronted with a set of possible
Evidential_decision_theory
Model of human decision-making
Decision field theory (DFT) is a dynamic-cognitive approach to human decision making. It is a cognitive model that describes how people actually make
Decision_field_theory
Mathematical models of strategic interactions
umbrella term for the science of rational decision making in humans, animals, and computers. Modern game theory began with the idea of mixed-strategy equilibria
Game_theory
Topics referred to by the same term
B.S. Decision-making Decision support system Decision theory Julio and Marisol, a 1990s AIDS public service campaign officially titled Decision. The Decision
Decision
Problem-solving method
process theory concerns embodied heuristics. Lakatosian heuristics is based on the key term: Justification (epistemology). One-reason decisions are algorithms
Heuristic
Interpretation of quantum mechanics
receives a reward that depends on the measurement result. The agent uses decision theory to evaluate the price they would pay to take part in such a gamble
Many-worlds_interpretation
Cognitive heuristic of searching for an acceptable decision
rationality, which posits that rational choice theory is an unrealistic description of human decision processes and calls for psychological realism. He
Satisficing
Subdivisions of science defined by their scope
theory, systems theory, decision theory, and statistics. Unlike other branches, the formal sciences are not concerned with the validity of theories based
Branches_of_science
Quality of being agreeable to reason
influential conception of practical rationality is given in decision theory, which states that a decision is rational if the chosen option has the highest expected
Rationality
Theory of response to surprise events
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately
Black_swan_theory
Process to choose a course of action
fatigue Decision quality Decision-making software Decision-making unit Decision management Emotional choice theory Ethical decision-making Foresight (psychology)
Decision-making
Method of statistical inference
philosophy, medicine, sport, psychology, and law. In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to subjective probability, often
Bayesian_inference
Philosophical study of knowledge
the evaluation of beliefs. It also intersects with fields such as decision theory, education, and anthropology. Early reflections on the nature, sources
Epistemology
Mathematical rule for inverting probabilities
axiomatic basis, writing in a 1973 book that Bayes' theorem "is to the theory of probability what the Pythagorean theorem is to geometry". Stephen Stigler
Bayes'_theorem
Emotional choice theory (also referred to as the "logic of affect") is a social scientific action model to explain human decision-making. Its foundation
Emotional_choice_theory
Interpretation of probability
pose; the constraints are justified by the Dutch book argument or by decision theory and de Finetti's theorem. The objective and subjective variants of
Bayesian_probability
Russian professor of Applied Mathematics
Mathematics and the Head of the Department of Mathematical Game theory and Statistical Decision Theory at the St. Petersburg University, Russia. The research interests
Leon_Petrosyan
Approach to optimizing robustness to failure
Info-gap decision theory seeks to optimize robustness to failure under severe uncertainty, in particular applying sensitivity analysis of the stability
Info-gap_decision_theory
Study of rational collective decision-making
Social choice theory is a branch of welfare economics that seeks to extend the theory of rational choice to collective decision-making. Social choice
Social_choice_theory
Academic journal
Theory and Decision is a peer-reviewed multidisciplinary journal of decision science published quarterly by Springer Science+Business Media. It was first
Theory_and_Decision
Possibility of something bad happening
In statistical decision theory, the risk function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make
Risk
List of statements that appear to contradict themselves
store game in an irrational manner. Decision-making paradox: Selecting the best decision-making method is a decision problem in itself. Ellsberg paradox:
List_of_paradoxes
Subfield of machine learning
Decision intelligence is an engineering discipline that augments data science with theory from social science, decision theory, and managerial science
Decision_intelligence
Yes/no problem in computer science
In computability theory and computational complexity theory, a decision problem is a computational problem that can be posed as a yes–no question on a
Decision_problem
AI thought experiment
artificial intelligence, and originated the theories of coherent extrapolated volition (CEV) and timeless decision theory (TDT) in papers published in his own
Roko's_basilisk
Mathematical decision rule
In estimation theory and decision theory, a Bayes estimator or a Bayes action is an estimator or decision rule that minimizes the posterior expected value
Bayes_estimator
Process of using data analysis for predicting population data from sample data
theory for structural inference based on group theory and applied this to linear models. The theory formulated by Fraser has close links to decision theory
Statistical_inference
Economic theory applied to political science
(for example) standard constrained utility maximization, game theory, or decision theory. It is the origin and intellectual foundation of contemporary
Public_choice
Italian-born American economist
research areas relating to economics, including decision theory, game theory, general equilibrium theory, neuroscience and economics, experimental economics
Aldo_Rustichini
Discipline covering formal decision making
framework for decision analysis in the early 1950s. The resulting expected-utility theory provides a complete axiomatic basis for decision making under
Decision_analysis
Class of models in the behavioral sciences
the use of decision theory (the theory of rational choice) as a set of guidelines to help understand economic and social behavior. The theory tries to approximate
Rational_choice_model
Approach in decision theory
The naturalistic decision making (NDM) framework emerged as a means of studying how people make decisions and perform cognitively complex functions in
Naturalistic_decision-making
Concept in economics and decision theory
Utility Theory for Decision Making. Huntington, NY: Robert E. Krieger. ISBN 0-88275-736-9. Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas (August 1936). "The Pure Theory of Consumer's
Utility
Hungarian mathematician
Hungarian and American mathematician and statistician who contributed to decision theory, geometry and econometrics, and founded the field of sequential analysis
Abraham_Wald
Concept in decision theory
In expected utility theory, a lottery is a discrete distribution of probability on a set of states of nature. The elements of a lottery correspond to the
Lottery_(decision_theory)
Multiscale decision-making, also referred to as multiscale decision theory (MSDT), is an approach in operations research that combines game theory, multi-agent
Multiscale_decision-making
Decision rule used for minimizing the possible loss for a worst-case scenario
Minmax, MM or saddle point) is a decision rule used in artificial intelligence, decision theory, combinatorial game theory, statistics, and philosophy for
Minimax
American psychologist (1927–2005)
(1927–2005) was an American psychologist, who is prominent for work on decision theory and formulation and revision of beliefs. Edwards was born on April
Ward_Edwards
decision-maker. Cross-cultural differences in decision making Decision model Decision-making software Emotional choice theory Rational choice theory Decision-making
Decision-making_models
Behavioral model of risky decision-making
In behavioral economics, cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a model for descriptive decisions under risk and uncertainty which was introduced by Amos
Cumulative_prospect_theory
Quality of a decision in the moment
Decision quality (DQ) is the quality of a decision at the moment the decision is made, regardless of its outcome. Decision quality concepts permit the
Decision_quality
Information systems supporting business or organizational decision-making activities
up a decision. Wikimedia Commons has media related to Decision support systems. Argument map Cognitive assets (organizational) Decision theory Enterprise
Decision_support_system
Aspect of economics
unexpected changes in the decision-making environment can greatly affect their decisions. The basic problem of consumer theory takes the following inputs:
Consumer_choice
Decision-making process used by consumers
As part of consumer behavior, the buying decision process is the decision-making process used by consumers regarding the market transactions before, during
Buyer_decision_process
statistical decision theory, a randomised decision rule or mixed decision rule is a decision rule that associates probabilities with deterministic decision rules
Randomised_decision_rule
Type of "good" decision rule in Bayesian statistics
In statistical decision theory, an admissible decision rule is a rule for making a decision such that there is no other rule that is always "better" than
Admissible_decision_rule
Decision science practice and analytical framework
term "deep uncertainty" distinguishes this approach from traditional decision theory and risk analysis, which typically assume that probabilities can be
Decision-making under deep uncertainty
Decision-making_under_deep_uncertainty
Means to measure signal processing ability
it actually is (see also decision theory). According to SDT, during eyewitness identifications, witnesses base their decision as to whether a suspect is
Detection_theory
Thought experiment
Today it is a much debated problem in the philosophical branch of decision theory. In the standard version of Newcomb's problem, two boxes are designated
Newcomb's_problem
Decision-making model
of RPD variation is more applicable to the organization. Decision theory Naturalistic decision making OODA "Gary Klein - BOOKS". garyklein. Retrieved 2019-05-24
Recognition-primed_decision
Reduction of the negative effects of cognitive biases
influences on human judgment and decision making that reliably produce reasoning errors. Coherent comprehensive theories of cognitive bias mitigation are
Cognitive_bias_mitigation
Information theorem
In the mathematical subjects of information theory and decision theory, Blackwell's informativeness theorem is an important result related to the ranking
Blackwell's informativeness theorem
Blackwell's_informativeness_theorem
Study of negotiations
negotiation theory are decision analysis, behavioral decision-making, game theory, and negotiation analysis. Another classification of theories distinguishes
Negotiation_theory
Intelligence of machines
decision analysis, and information value theory. These tools include models such as Markov decision processes, dynamic decision networks, game theory
Artificial_intelligence
Decision that leads to the best outcome in decision theory
decision options. It is an important concept in decision theory. In order to compare the different decision outcomes, one commonly assigns a utility value
Optimal_decision
Argument for the belief in God
unpublished notes. Pascal's wager is the first formal application of decision theory, existentialism, pragmatism, and voluntarism. Critics of Pascal's wager
Pascal's_wager
Unrecoverable cost that has been incurred
house, into their future decisions regarding those properties. According to classical economics and standard microeconomic theory, only prospective (future)
Sunk_cost
Operations research that evaluates multiple conflicting criteria in decision making
multiple attribute utility theory, multiple attribute value theory, multiple attribute preference theory, and multi-objective decision analysis. Conflicting
Multiple-criteria decision analysis
Multiple-criteria_decision_analysis
Mathematical problem involving optimal stopping theory
involving optimal stopping theory that is studied extensively in the fields of applied probability, statistics, and decision theory. It is also known as the
Secretary_problem
Cognitive process independent of the senses
multiplied by the probability that this outcome occurs. According to decision theory, a decision is rational if the agent chooses the alternative associated with
Thought
Tree-based ensemble machine learning methods
random decision forests is an ensemble learning method for classification, regression and other tasks that works by creating a multitude of decision trees
Random_forest
Aspect of decision and prospect theories
aversion" in their initial proposal of prospect theory as an alternative descriptive model of decision making under risk. "The response to losses is stronger
Loss_aversion
Probability puzzle
(2008). "The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making" (PDF). Theory and Decision. Tierney, John (21 July 1991).
Monty_Hall_problem
Amount in information economics
information (VOI or VoI) is the amount a decision maker would be willing to pay for information prior to making a decision. VoI is sometimes distinguished into
Value_of_information
Type of business management
Decision management, also known as enterprise decision management (EDM) or business decision management (BDM), entails all aspects of designing, building
Decision_management
Proof of social welfare function being pareto efficient given three axioms
In decision theory, the Harsanyi's utilitarian theorem proves mathematically that a rational social welfare function that satisfies the expected utility
Harsanyi's utilitarian theorem
Harsanyi's_utilitarian_theorem
Type of probability threshold analysis
In decision theory, decision curve analysis evaluates a predictor for an event as a probability threshold is varied, typically by showing a graphical
Decision_curve_analysis
A decision model in decision theory is the starting point for a decision method within a formal (axiomatic) system. Decision models contain at least one
Decision_model
Concept in economics
psychologically richer theory of the determinants Allais paradox Ambiguity aversion Bayesian probability Behavioral economics Decision theory Generalized expected
Expected_utility_hypothesis
In social studies and social policy, intervention theory is the analysis of the decision making problems of intervening effectively in a situation in order
Intervention_theory
Theory of organizational decision-making
known as garbage can process, or garbage can theory) describes the chaotic reality of organizational decision making in an organized anarchy. The model originated
Garbage_can_model
American AI researcher and writer (born 1979)
1979) is an American artificial intelligence researcher and writer on decision theory and ethics, known for popularizing ideas related to friendly artificial
Eliezer_Yudkowsky
Concept in decision theory
In decision theory, subjective expected utility (SEU) is a framework for modeling how individuals make choices under uncertainty. In particular, it posits
Subjective_expected_utility
often in a subconscious way à la Carl Jung's collective unconscious. Decision theory is a method of deductive reasoning based on formal probability and
Decentralized_decision-making
Logically self-contradictory statement
themselves" would include itself and showed that attempts to found set theory on the identification of sets with properties or predicates were flawed
Paradox
Dynamic decision-making (DDM) is interdependent decision-making that takes place in an environment that changes over time either due to the previous actions
Dynamic_decision-making
leadership and decision-making, developed the normative model of decision-making. Drawing upon literature from the areas of leadership, group decision-making
Normative model of decision-making
Normative_model_of_decision-making
American philosopher (born 1976)
proposed it). Note that "decision theory" in the book's context refers to a number of philosophical theories about decisions, not to the branch of probability
Agnes_Callard
International professional organization
The Decision Sciences Institute (DSI) is a professional association of university professors, graduate students, and practitioners whose interest lies
Decision_Sciences_Institute
Model for decision analysis
In decision theory, the weighted sum model (WSM), also called weighted linear combination (WLC) or simple additive weighting (SAW), is the best known
Weighted_sum_model
Theory of cognition
dominates a perceptual decision. The work attempted to link Gestalt theory and psychophysics (i.e., independent linear filters). This theory was further developed
Fuzzy-trace_theory
Term in decision theory and general systems theory
frame of reference, outlook, or disposition. Person A is said to have a theory of mind (ToM) about person B, relating mindset research to ToM. This may
Mindset
American businessman, author and academic
his research, publications, and expertise in the fields of decision quality and decision theory. Spetzler holds a BS in chemical engineering and an MBA and
Carl_Spetzler
American philosopher
contributions to philosophy of science, the theory of measurement, the foundations of quantum mechanics, decision theory, psychology and educational technology
Patrick_Suppes
Decision-making concept
influences decision making across a wide range of everyday and significant choices.Nudging is a concept in behavioral science , political theory and economics
Choice_architecture
Systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment
several replicable ways in which human judgments and decisions differ from rational choice theory. Their 1974 paper, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics
Cognitive_bias
2011 book by Daniel Kahneman
at binary decisions or fail to associate precisely reasonable probabilities with outcomes. Kahneman explains this phenomenon using the theory of heuristics
Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
In decision theory, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) is the expected increase in utility that a decision-maker could obtain from gaining
Expected value of sample information
Expected_value_of_sample_information
Measure for evaluating probabilistic forecasts
In decision theory, both a scoring rule as well as a scoring function provide an ex post summary measure for the evaluation of the quality of a prediction
Scoring_rule
American political philosopher (1938–2002)
counterfactual theory of knowledge. It won Phi Beta Kappa society's Ralph Waldo Emerson Award the following year. Nozick's other work involved ethics, decision theory
Robert_Nozick
Any individual whose preferences satisfy four axioms has a utility function
In decision theory, the von Neumann–Morgenstern (VNM) utility theorem demonstrates that rational choice under uncertainty involves making decisions that
Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem
Von_Neumann–Morgenstern_utility_theorem
American psychologist (1941–1987)
who played a key role in the development of the field of behavioral decision theory. Einhorn earned BA and MA degrees at Brooklyn College, married Susan
Hillel_J._Einhorn
In decision theory, economics, and finance, a two-moment decision model is a model that describes or prescribes the process of making decisions in a context
Two-moment_decision_model
In decision theory, the Anscombe-Aumann subjective expected utility model (also known as Anscombe-Aumann framework, Anscombe-Aumann approach, or Anscombe-Aumann
Anscombe-Aumann subjective expected utility model
Anscombe-Aumann_subjective_expected_utility_model
Indian economist and Nobel laureate (born 1933)
major contributions to social choice theory, economic and social justice, economic theories of famines, decision theory, development economics, public health
Amartya_Sen
Computer scientist
science researcher in data mining and decision theory. He has contributed extensively to the development of decision tree algorithms, including inventing
Ross_Quinlan
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