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Method of predicting the future
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes
Reference_class_forecasting
Cognitive bias of underestimating time needed
in interruptions. Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions
Planning_fallacy
Making predictions with available data
Telecommunications forecasting Transport planning and forecasting Weather forecasting, flood forecasting and meteorology In several cases, the forecast is either
Forecasting
Estimations of customer demand
Demand forecasting, also known as demand planning and sales forecasting (DP&SF), involves the prediction of the quantity of goods and services that will
Demand_forecasting
Reduction of bias
and representativeness. Training in reference class forecasting may also improve outcomes. Reference class forecasting is a method for systematically debiasing
Debiasing
Issue when estimating a probability
In statistics, the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case
Reference_class_problem
Prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts
forecasting Ensemble averaging Ensemble forecasting Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) Reference class forecasting Timmermann, Allan (2007). "An Evaluation
Consensus_forecast
Graphical presentation of the maturity of specific technologies
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Gartner_hype_cycle
Logistics methodology
choice of demand forecasting method influences both supplier selection and planning of order allocation. Reference class forecasting Seifert, Dick (2003)
Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment
Collaborative_planning,_forecasting,_and_replenishment
Process of making predictions about the economy
Model. See also Land use forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Transportation planning and Calculating Demand Forecast Accuracy. The World Bank provides
Economic_forecasting
Predicting the future of technology
create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful
Technology_forecasting
Adage referring to time estimates
Planning fallacy – Cognitive bias of underestimating time needed Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future Student syndrome – Planned
Hofstadter's_law
Adage that work expands to fill its available time
triviality List of eponymous laws Peter principle Planning fallacy Reference class forecasting Roemer's law SnackWell effect Student syndrome Time management
Parkinson's_law
Method for estimating the maturity of technologies
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Technology_readiness_level
Estimation of future use of some transport infrastructure
worthwhile? In addition to identifying the forecasting and decision steps as additional steps in the process, forecasting and decision-making permeate each step
Transportation_forecasting
Interactive forecasting method
systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages
Delphi_method
Term referring to various activities in futurology
Emerging technologies Foresight Institute Forecasting Horizon scanning Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Strategic foresight Strategic
Foresight_(futures_studies)
Overview of and topical guide to futures studies
Orientation Index Futures International Journal of Forecasting Journal of Futures Studies Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abductive reasoning List
Outline_of_futures_studies
Medical term for the likely development of a disease
redirect targets Prediction – Statement about a future event Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future Relative survival – Calculation
Prognosis
Attempts to spot a pattern from information
(trends). Cool-hunting Extrapolation Horizon scanning Technology forecasting Weather forecasting Trend analysis tries to predict a trend like a bull market
Trend_analysis
Israeli-American psychologist and economist (1934–2024)
Planning fallacy Prospect theory Cumulative prospect theory Reference class forecasting Representativeness heuristic Simulation heuristic Status quo
Daniel_Kahneman
Theories about the end of the universe
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Ultimate_fate_of_the_universe
Hypothetical event
Theodore (2002) "Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change" Archived 2021-02-15 at the Wayback Machine, Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Technological_singularity
demand forecast accuracy Errors and residuals in statistics Forecasting Forecasting accuracy Mean squared prediction error Optimism bias Reference class forecasting
Forecast_error
Observation on the growth of integrated circuit capacity
another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41%
Moore's_law
Influencing current reality from desired future state scenario
analysis, backcasting can be considered to be the opposite of forecasting; thus: forecasting involves the prediction of the future (unknown) values of the
Backcasting
Long-term future of planet Earth
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Future_of_Earth
Systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment
the crowd technique of averaging answers from several people. Reference class forecasting is a method for systematically debiasing estimates and decisions
Cognitive_bias
Method in futures studies
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Three_Horizons
Theoretical composite race which will result from ongoing racial admixture
predicted: "The man of the future will be of mixed race. Today's races and classes will gradually disappear owing to the vanishing of space, time, and prejudice
Race_of_the_future
Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk
apparent likelihood Foresight (psychology) – Behavior-based backcasting & forecasting factors Future of Earth – Long-term future of planet Earth Future of
Global_catastrophic_risk
Graphical visualization method of changes
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Futures_wheel
Statement about a future event
to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting.[failed verification] Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction
Prediction
Possibility of something bad happening
prefrontal activity relates to local or focal processing. Reference class forecasting is a forecasting method by which biases associated with risks can be mitigated
Risk
Extremely large-scale construction and investment project
List of transport megaprojects Macro-engineering Megastructure Reference class forecasting Optimism bias Gigantomania Megaprojects and Risk When Technology
Megaproject
Process to choose a course of action
decision-making in many domains, ranging from finance to health. Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce cognitive biases in decision-making
Decision-making
Practice of regarding cost in engineering projects
Pre-construction services Project management Quantity surveyor Reference class forecasting Risk management Risk premium Total delivery cost Value engineering
Cost_engineering
Technique used in strategic planning and futurology
Inayatullah sought to create a method that went beyond traditional forecasting techniques, which often focused solely on surface-level trends and data
Causal_layered_analysis
Document providing reasoning for a project
charter Case competition Innovation Optimism bias Planning fallacy Reference class forecasting Win–win game Project Management Institute 2021, §Appendix X3
Business_case
Planning-oriented discipline
Critical design Design fiction Forecasting Foresight (future studies) Futurology Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Science fiction prototyping Strategic
Strategic_foresight
Futures studies / Futures techniques method
technique for long-range forecasting – used by 68% of the large organizations he surveyed. Practical development of scenario forecasting, to guide strategy
Scenario_planning
Disproportionate favor towards the past
Tendency to remember pleasant things better Positivity effect Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future Mitchell, Terence R.; Thompson
Rosy_retrospection
Overview of space exploration in the future
Sun-like stars where water can exist in liquid state. It is the third medium-class mission in ESA's Cosmic Vision programme and named after the influential
Future_of_space_exploration
Evaluation of one's financial state
aggregation. Budget Capital budgeting Optimism bias Personal budget Reference class forecasting Wikimedia Commons has media related to Financial planning. "Financial
Financial_plan
Branch of engineering dealing with hypothetical models
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Exploratory_engineering
Problem-solving technique that breaks down a system into its component pieces
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Systems_analysis
Element of technology management
competitive strategy. It can also be regarded as a method of technology forecasting or in the broader context also an element of corporate foresight. Technology
Technology_scouting
Design practice critically concerned with future designs
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Speculative_design
Increase in the rate of technological change through history
"Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology" (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 78 (8): 1356–1364. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07
Accelerating_change
extrapolate current science forward and, therefore, include a set of references at the end. Such prototypes can take several days to write and for situations
Science_fiction_prototyping
Economic state
Sinister Side of Cash". WSJ. Retrieved 25 August 2020. "Withdrawn Banknotes Reference Guide" (PDF). Bank of England. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29
Cashless_society
Planning and building for time to come
would be required to future-proof the regional economy with specific reference to the water system. The study specifically sought to understand the existing
Future-proof
When the actual benefits of a venture are less than the projected or estimated benefits
on Optimism Bias". HM Treasury. Retrieved 15 February 2026. "Reference Class Forecasting and Project Appraisal". Organisation for Economic Co-operation
Benefit_shortfall
Type of cognitive bias
targets Positive illusions – Unrealistically favorable attitudes Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future Self-serving bias – Distortion
Optimism_bias
Futures studies lessons learned methods
Prediction Prediction market Reference class forecasting Science fiction prototyping Strategic foresight Technology forecasting Pre-mortem Maness, Juana (2016)
Futures_techniques
Identification, evaluation and control of risks
risk analysis Precautionary principle Redundancy (engineering) Reference class forecasting Representative heuristic Risk appetite Risk aversion Risk management
Risk_management
Study of postulating possible futures
Foresight Science International Journal of Forecasting Journal of Futures Studies Technological Forecasting and Social Change World Futures World Futures
Futures_studies
Formal written document containing the goals of a business
1997-2001 this was a problem for many technology start-ups. Reference class forecasting has been developed to reduce the risks of cost overruns and revenue
Business_plan
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Future_workshop
Methodology in futures studies
appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005. Then, horizon scanning was used to name detection and
Horizon_scanning
Unexpected incurred costs in excess of budgeted amounts
Planning fallacy – Cognitive bias of underestimating time needed Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future Scope creep – Project management
Cost_overrun
Depletion of natural organic and inorganic resources
November 2011). "Report on the expert meeting on forest reference emission levels and forest reference levels for implementation of REDD-plus activities (FCCC/SBSTA/2011/INF
Resource_depletion
Unrealistically favorable attitudes
Psychological resilience – Ability to mentally cope with a crisis Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future Self-deception – Psychology
Positive_illusions
Methodology for evaluating risks
economic sanctions. Benefit risk Common mode failure Cost risk Reference class forecasting Risk assessment Risk matrix Extreme risk Risk management tools
Probabilistic_risk_assessment
Methodology in futures studies
writes that cross-impact analysis was the result of a question: "can forecasting be based on perceptions about how future events may interact?" The first
Cross_impact_analysis
Analysis of the risks and potential benefits of an action
shortfall Cost–benefit analysis Odds algorithm Optimism bias Reference class forecasting "Risk-Benefit Analysis". Capita.wustl.edu. Archived from the
Risk–benefit_ratio
Identification and evaluation of risks
management problem. Business portal Benefit risk Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Extreme risk Risk management Peren–Clement index Messerschmitt
Risk_analysis_(business)
Design practice
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Design_fiction
Estimation of risk associated with exposure to a given set of hazards
dependent variable can take only two values Project risk management Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future Reliability engineering – Sub-discipline
Risk_assessment
Planning Fallacy, along with its remedy "bias uplifts" such as Reference Class Forecasting (RCF), might work under risk, not uncertainty, where probability
Lavagnon_Ika
Poincaré writing in 1908 (English translation), "The true method of forecasting the future of mathematics lies in the study of its history and its present
Future_of_mathematics
Reduction of the negative effects of cognitive biases
expanded upon by others, and applied in real-life situations, is reference class forecasting. This approach involves three steps: with a specific project
Cognitive_bias_mitigation
Futures studies term
and its consequences. It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight
Future-oriented technology analysis
Future-oriented_technology_analysis
Measure of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions
{\displaystyle N} is the number of forecasting instances. In effect, it is the mean squared error of the forecast. This formulation is mostly used for
Brier_score
Model of innovation
in the innovation process: From Queen to Cinderella?” Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76, 861–867. Marius Vassiliou, Stan Davis, and Jonathan
Chain-linked_model
Conceptual framework
August 2016. Accelerating change Backcasting Creative science foundation Forecasting Foresight (futures studies) Futures studies Futures techniques Market
Threatcasting
Class of supercarriers for the U.S. Navy
these forecasts as unrealistic and has indicated sortie rates similar to the 120/240 per day of the Nimitz class would be acceptable. The Nimitz-class aircraft
Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier
Gerald_R._Ford-class_aircraft_carrier
Form of the Delphi method
“Round-less”, Almost Real Time Delphi Method. Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change,73(4), 321-333. Friedewald, M., von Oertzen, J., &
Real-time_Delphi
Prediction of future fashion trends
technology. Short-term forecasting can also be considered fad forecasting. Two types of fashion forecasting are used: short-term forecasting, which envisions
Fashion_forecasting
Aspect of design that challenges preconceptions
scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design
Critical_design
Publication to which one can refer for confirmed facts
A reference work is a document, such as a paper, book, encyclopedia or periodical (or their electronic equivalents, usually available online), to which
Reference_work
Determining the value of a new technology
assessment of effects, consequences, and risks of a technology, but also is a forecasting function looking into the projection of opportunities and skill development
Technology_assessment
Branch of energy forecasting
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of energy forecasting which focuses on using mathematical, statistical and machine learning models to
Electricity_price_forecasting
Class of Soviet missile corvette
The Tarantul-class corvette, Soviet designation Project 1241 Molniya (Russian: Молния, lit. 'Lightning') are a class of Russian missile corvettes (large
Tarantul-class_corvette
Forecasters whose results are more accurate than average
(PDF). Clingendael Futures. International Institute of Forecasters (15 August 2022). Forecasting Practices and Processes 5. Retrieved 27 August 2024 –
Superforecaster
Sequence of data points over time
(2006). "25 Years of Time Series Forecasting". International Journal of Forecasting. Twenty Five Years of Forecasting. 22 (3): 443–473. CiteSeerX 10.1
Time_series
French warship class (2005–present)
The Mistral class is a class of five landing helicopter docks built by France. Also known as helicopter carriers, and referred to as "projection and command
Mistral-class landing helicopter dock
Mistral-class_landing_helicopter_dock
British class of diesel multiple unit trains
The British Rail Class 150 Sprinter is a class of diesel-hydraulic multiple unit passenger trains; they were developed and built by British Rail Engineering
British_Rail_Class_150
Planning technique
applies to a new product or process and may include using technology forecasting or technology scouting to identify suitable emerging technologies. It
Technology_roadmap
because it is going to rain. Gomer has a funny little routine to make his forecasts. Gomer's prediction comes true. The next day Carter says they will paint
List of Gomer Pyle – USMC episodes
List_of_Gomer_Pyle_–_USMC_episodes
Federal Budget report is "back in the black" but the Coalition has only forecast a surplus and is yet to deliver one; Josh Frydenberg claimed the Budget
List of The Weekly with Charlie Pickering episodes
List_of_The_Weekly_with_Charlie_Pickering_episodes
Eruption of electromagnetic radiation
Analysis Group at Johnson Space Flight Center (NASA/SRAG) for forecasting M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CME, and solar energetic particle events. A
Solar_flare
American statistician and writer (born 1978)
retained the IP of 538's election forecasting model as he left, and in June 2024, released his own election forecasting model at Silver Bulletin, using
Nate_Silver
Class of diesel electric locomotives
British government. It was forecast that 100 of these new locomotives could replace 236 older ones of various types, including classes 20, 33, and 47, many
British_Rail_Class_60
Empirical measure describing wind speed based on observed conditions
Office in Britain giving regular weather forecasts. The initial scale of 13 classes (zero to 12) did not reference wind speed numbers, but related qualitative
Beaufort_scale
Class of frigate in the Royal Navy
Leander class Chilean Navy: Condell class Royal Australian Navy: River class Indian Navy: Nilgiri class Royal Netherlands Navy: Van Speijk class The policy
Leander-class_frigate
British class of diesel multiple unit trains
maintenance costs; an availability rate of 85% was forecast. By 1983, experiences with the Class 210 had influenced BR planners to favour procuring a
British_Rail_Class_158
American geopolitical advising firm
Strategic Forecasting Inc. is an American strategic intelligence publishing company founded in 1996. Stratfor's business model is to provide individual
Stratfor
March 5, 1982 (1982-03-05) Snow does not rain down on Christmas Eve, but the forecast says otherwise and Shizuka is disappointed. Nobita begs Doraemon for a
List of Doraemon (1979 TV series) episodes (1979–1986)
List_of_Doraemon_(1979_TV_series)_episodes_(1979–1986)
Russian economist and politician (born 1959)
Director of the Analysis and Forecasting of Macroeconomic Processes Laboratory of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Andrey_Belousov
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
Female
English
English short form of Latin Cassandra, CASS means "she who entangles men."Â
Surname or Lastname
North German variant of Laas 2.Jewish (Ashkenazic)
North German variant of Laas 2.Jewish (Ashkenazic) : unexplained.English : nickname from Middle English lesse, lasse ‘smaller’ (from Old English lǣssa ‘less’), perhaps also used in the sense ‘younger’.
Surname or Lastname
English
English : from the medieval female personal name Cass, a short form of Cassandra. This was the name (of uncertain, possibly non-Greek, origin) of an ill-fated Trojan prophetess of classical legend, condemned to foretell the future but never be believed; her story was well known and widely popular in medieval England.
Girl/Female
Indian
Glass
Girl/Female
Indian
Glass
Boy/Male
English Latin Irish Welsh
Wealthy man.
Male
German
Short form of German Niclaus, CLAUS means "victor of the people."Â
Boy/Male
Australian, Dutch, German, Greek
People's Victory
Surname or Lastname
English
English : nickname from Old French, Middle English cras ‘big’, ‘fat’ (Latin crassus).Possibly an altered spelling of German Krass.
Boy/Male
Arabic
Peace Maker; Brightness; Class
Girl/Female
Muslim/Islamic
Glass
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant of Close 1.German : variant of Kloss.
Boy/Male
Australian, Danish, Dutch, Greek, Swedish
People of Victory; Victory of the People
Surname or Lastname
English and German
English and German : metonymic occupational name for a glazier or glass blower, from Old English glæs ‘glass’ (akin to Glad, referring originally to the bright shine of the material), Middle High German glas.Irish and Scottish : Anglicized form of the epithet glas ‘gray’, ‘green’, ‘blue’ or any of various Gaelic surnames derived from it.German : altered form of the personal name Klass, a reduced form of Nikolaus (see Nicholas).Jewish (Ashkenazic) : ornamental name from German Glass ‘glass’, or a metonymic occupational name for a glazier or glass blower.
Surname or Lastname
North German
North German : topographic name from Middle Low German plas ‘place’, ‘open square’, ‘street’.South German (also Pläss) : from a short form of the medieval personal name Blasius.English : variant of Place 3.
Girl/Female
Muslim
Glass
Surname or Lastname
English
English : from the medieval personal name Classe, a short form of Nicholas. See also Clayson.Variant of Klaas or Klass, North German forms of Claus.
Girl/Female
Tamil
Glass
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Preference
Boy/Male
Greek Latin
People's victory.
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Heavenly
Boy/Male
African American
The king.
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian, Tamil
Song
Girl/Female
Anglo, British, Christian, English, Gothic
Winter
Biblical
going out, departure
Girl/Female
Indian
Ignite; Interest; Success; Excellence
Boy/Male
Gaelic Celtic
warrior.
Girl/Female
Biblical, British, English
Buckler; Coldness
Male
Scandinavian
Scandinavian form of Greek Michaēl, MIKKEL means "who is like God?"
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant of Clough.English : metonymic occupational name for a nailer, from Old French clou ‘nail’. Compare Clower.Possibly an Americanized spelling of German Klau, a habitational name for someone from Klau near Aachen or Clauen in Lower Saxony, or Glau, a nickname for an astute person, from Old High German, Low German glou, glau ‘circumspect’.
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
REFERENCE CLASS-FORECASTING
v. t.
Variant of Clasp
v. t.
To case in glass.
v. t.
To regard or treat with reverence; to regard with respect and affection mingled with fear; to venerate.
n.
That which refers to something; a specific direction of the attention; as, a reference in a text-book.
a.
Of the rank or degree below the best highest; inferior; second-rate; as, a second-class house; a second-class passage.
n.
The act of referring, or the state of being referred; as, reference to a chart for guidance.
n.
That which is preferred; the object of choice or superior favor; as, which is your preference?
a.
Of the best class; of the highest rank; in the first division; of the best quality; first-rate; as, a first-class telescope.
n.
One who regards with reverence.
n.
That which deserves or exacts manifestations of reverence; reverend character; dignity; state.
n.
A group of individuals ranked together as possessing common characteristics; as, the different classes of society; the educated class; the lower classes.
n.
To arrange in classes; to classify or refer to some class; as, to class words or passages.
v. t.
A looking-glass; a mirror.
v. t.
Anything made of glass.
n.
A yielding of judgment or preference from respect to the wishes or opinion of another; submission in opinion; regard; respect; complaisance.
imp. & p. p.
of Reverence
n.
One of the sections into which a church or congregation is divided, and which is under the supervision of a class leader.
n.
To divide into classes, as students; to form into, or place in, a class or classes.
v. t.
To shut or fasten together with, or as with, a clasp; to shut or fasten (a clasp, or that which fastens with a clasp).