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Term in electoral politics
A marginal seat or swing seat is a constituency held with a small majority in a legislative election, generally one conducted under a single-winner voting
Marginal_seat
Topics referred to by the same term
in 2001 Marginal (manga) El Marginal, Argentine TV series Marginal seat or marginal constituency or marginal, in politics Marginalism Marginal analysis
Marginal
EMSR stands for Expected Marginal Seat Revenue and is a very popular heuristic in Revenue Management. There are two versions: EMSRa and EMSRb, both of
Expected marginal seat revenue
Expected_marginal_seat_revenue
Overview of politics in South Australia
Liberal seat. Adelaide is considered to be a safe Labor seat. Sturt is considered to be a marginal seat. As of 2024, the most recent state referendum in South
Politics_of_South_Australia
Electoral district considered to be secure
dominant party's nomination for a safe seat. There is a spectrum between safe and marginal seats. Supposedly safe seats can still change hands in a landslide
Safe_seat
Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1885 onwards
represented by Conservative MPs, but from the 1990s onwards became a marginal seat, or swing seat, and since 2024 has been represented by Josh Babarinde, a Liberal
Eastbourne_(constituency)
This is a list of marginal seats in the United Kingdom after the results in the 2010 general election. Ten most marginal seats (by majority) from the 2010
Marginal constituencies in the 2010 United Kingdom general election
Marginal_constituencies_in_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
State election for New South Wales, Australia in March 2007
a 13 seat majority prior to the election to a marginally decreased 11 seat majority. The Liberals succeeded in taking two independent-held seats and one
2007 New South Wales state election
2007_New_South_Wales_state_election
Australian politician (1973–2022)
election after winning Labor endorsement to contest the increasingly marginal seat of Brunswick. In 2011, she was elected national junior vice-president
Jane_Garrett
Travel Demand and Airline Seat Inventory Management. Flight Transportation Laboratory. Cambridge, MIT. PhD Yield management Expected marginal seat revenue
Littlewood's_rule
general election was held on 4 July 2024. This list shows the most marginal seats, ie those needing the smallest swing to be won by each of the political
List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election
List_of_marginal_seats_before_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Plurality voting system
and marginal seats". The Guardian. 7 April 2010. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2017. Wickham, Alex. ""Safe seats" almost
First-past-the-post_voting
TheJournal.ie. "A seat-by-seat guide to the general election in Northern Ireland". The Independent. 4 December 2019. List of marginal seats before the 2024
List of marginal seats before the 2019 United Kingdom general election
List_of_marginal_seats_before_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Australian federal electoral division
mortgage belt seats, which tend to be fairly marginal. Though now a marginal seat, for nearly a century it had been one of the safest Labor seats in the country
Division_of_Hindmarsh
36th Philippine senatorial election
stated that he is retiring in 2028 after his first term. These are the marginal seats that had a winning margin of 5% or less against the 13th placed candidate
2028 Philippine Senate election
2028_Philippine_Senate_election
Election for the 45th Parliament of Australia
that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales, unusually nearly half of all marginal government seats are in New South Wales at this election
2016 Australian federal election
2016_Australian_federal_election
Provincial election
replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives hold the seat narrowly. June 6: Scott Fielding resigns as Minister of Natural Resources
2023 Manitoba general election
2023_Manitoba_general_election
UK Parliament constituency (since 1997)
a Conservative MP. In the 1997 and 2001 general elections, the seat was very marginal, with majorities of less than 1,000 votes for the Conservative candidate
Boston_and_Skegness
British Conservative politician (born 1952)
2016 Kent Police and Crime Commissioner election. She contested the marginal seat of Scunthorpe at the 2015 general election, but lost to the Labour incumbent
Jo_Gideon
British politician (born 1972)
further headlines due to Barwell publishing a book titled How to Win a Marginal Seat after his 2015 victory. Jones made her maiden speech in the House of
Sarah_Jones_(politician)
Results of the 43rd Canadian federal election
majority of the seats in the House, was returned with a minority of the seats, while the Conservative Party of Canada gained fewer seats than expected and
Results breakdown of the 2019 Canadian federal election
Results_breakdown_of_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election
Australian federal electoral division
become an increasingly marginal seat. The 2007 outcome in Bennelong resulted in Labor candidate Maxine McKew winning the seat on a thin 1.4-point margin
Division_of_Bennelong
State electoral district of Western Australia
Perth. Joondalup has tended to be a marginal seat, having been marginal from 1996 until 2021, when it became a safe seat for the first time since 1986. The
Electoral district of Joondalup
Electoral_district_of_Joondalup
Deliberative assembly that makes laws
legislator can also be described as a "seat", as, for example, in the phrases "safe seat" and "marginal seat". After election, the members may be protected
Legislature
British politician (1893–1967)
Swansea. For the 1959 general election, Morris' seat was one of the most high-profile marginal seats in the country. He had Aneurin Bevan to open his
Percy_Morris
Australian federal electoral division
member of the Australian Labor Party. In 2019, Macquarie was the most marginal seat in the country, held by a 0.19-point margin on the 2PP. However, in
Division_of_Macquarie
Former Australian federal electoral division
election. It was abolished prior to the 1993 federal election. It was a marginal seat that from 1963 onward was held by the governing party of the day. "Division
Division_of_Phillip
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
a marginal seat, and is part of the belt of marginal seats in eastern Melbourne that usually decide elections in Victoria. Labor then held the seat until
Electoral district of Bentleigh
Electoral_district_of_Bentleigh
Australian federal electoral division
Labor Party. The seat at its creation was a 'marginal seat', being notionally held by the Labor Party by only 3.3%. A hybrid urban-rural seat, Bullwinkel takes
Division_of_Bullwinkel
Mahon was selected as parliamentary candidate for the marginal seat of Blackburn West, but the seat was abolished by redistribution prior to the 1955 general
Peter_Mahon_(politician)
Parliamentary constituency in Barbados
Browne, a member of the BLP. The Saint Philip North constituency is a marginal seat for the BLP. The constituency runs: From Shark’s Hole on the south eastern
Saint Philip North (Barbados Parliament constituency)
Saint_Philip_North_(Barbados_Parliament_constituency)
Election of South Australia's 56th parliament
triggering a by-election in his seat of Dunstan. Held on 23 March, Labor candidate Cressida O'Hanlon won the marginal seat with a 1.4 per cent swing towards
2026 South Australian state election
2026_South_Australian_state_election
Australian federal electoral division
Braddon has traditionally been a marginal seat. However, in 2022 the trend was broken, with Braddon becoming a "fairly safe" seat for the first time in twelve
Division_of_Braddon
Australian federal electoral division
Sturt. This saw Boothby change from a marginal Labor seat on a 1.8 percent two-party margin to a marginal Liberal seat on a two percent two-party margin.
Division_of_Boothby
British politician (born 1972)
worked as a solicitor and corporate lawyer. She was elected to the marginal seat of Loughborough at the 2010 general election. She served as Economic
Nicky_Morgan
Australian federal electoral division in Tasmania
the city of Launceston and its surrounds. It has traditionally been a marginal seat and has had more members than any other federal electorate, at 18 members
Division_of_Bass
UK Parliament constituency (1918–1945, 1997 onwards)
Conservatives by a margin of just 15 votes, making Hendon the most marginal seat in the United Kingdom. Hendon is a suburban constituency in the Borough
Hendon_(constituency)
Australian federal electoral division
effectively 0.005%, making Bowman Australia's most marginal seat at the time. Laming went on to retain the seat comfortably for the Liberal National Party of
Division_of_Bowman
parties ahead of the 2007 New South Wales state election. The table shows seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly arranged in the form of a Mackerras
Post-election pendulum for the 2003 New South Wales state election
Post-election_pendulum_for_the_2003_New_South_Wales_state_election
Australian federal electoral division
to the Tonkin Highway and Lord Street in the east. Cowan was once a marginal seat, but is now strongly held by the Australian Labor Party. The current
Division_of_Cowan
UK Parliament constituency (since 1997)
held the seat from 1997 until losing reelection in 2015 to Conservative James Berry. Kingston and Surbiton has been considered a marginal seat, as well
Kingston_and_Surbiton
British Conservative politician (born 1972)
2015 election, Barwell retained his seat with a majority of just 165. Barwell's book, How to Win a Marginal Seat: My Year Fighting for my Political Life
Gavin_Barwell
British politician (1942–2018)
Sevenoaks in 1970, Ovenden was elected as Member of Parliament for the marginal seat of Gravesend between 1974 and 1979, when he lost to the Conservative
John_Ovenden
Australian federal electoral division
cent, just 1.7 per cent (3,000 votes) short of taking the seat, making Mayo a marginal seat for the first time. However, on "traditional" two-party terms
Division_of_Mayo
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
electorate westwards. It has traditionally been a marginal seat. Graham Ernst of the Labor Party won the seat in the 1985 and 1988 elections but was defeated
Electoral district of Bellarine
Electoral_district_of_Bellarine
Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1950–1983
third place in all the elections it contested in this seat. Huyton was a somewhat marginal seat in its early contests, but Wilson achieved an absolute
Huyton_(constituency)
Australian federal electoral division
As a result, for most of its existence it has been highly marginal. Unlike most marginal seats with similar demographics, however, McEwen is not considered
Division_of_McEwen
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
re-created in 1985. In its current incarnation, it has historically been a marginal seat with demographics similar to the state at large. As such, it was held
Electoral_district_of_Geelong
South Australian state electoral district
into a notional marginal Liberal electorate. However, Labor retained the seat at the 1985 election, albeit as the most marginal seat in parliament. Liberal
Electoral district of Adelaide
Electoral_district_of_Adelaide
Overview of politics in the Northern Territory
a safe Labor seat. The suburbs of Darwin are considered to be safe Labor seats. Drysdale and Barkly are considered to be marginal seats. The Northern
Politics of the Northern Territory
Politics_of_the_Northern_Territory
UK Parliament constituency (1983–1997)
general election, and abolished for the 1997 general election. It was a marginal seat throughout its lifetime. This was a constituency of a varied nature
Clwyd_South_West
British political party
candidates in the 2024 general election, targeting Conservative-held marginal seats and MPs who 'obstruct climate action'. The party's core focus is on
Climate_Party
Greek-Australian political consultant
field campaigning strategy as Labor's marginal seats director. Under the strategy, which had been trialled in some seats at the 2013 federal election, Labor
Kos_Samaras
Retrieved 22 September 2013. List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election List of marginal seats before the 2019 United Kingdom general
List of marginal seats before the 2017 United Kingdom general election
List_of_marginal_seats_before_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
Australian federal electoral division
Prime Minister of Australia. For much of its history, Barton has been a marginal seat, held by the Australian Labor Party for most of the time after 1940
Division_of_Barton
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
to create a single Bendigo electorate. It was recreated in 1985 as a marginal seat and was won by Liberal candidate Michael John, who went on to serve
Electoral district of Bendigo East
Electoral_district_of_Bendigo_East
British politician (born 1945)
(MP) for Oxford East from 1983 to 1987. After narrowly losing that marginal seat he re-entered the House of Commons at a by-election for Epping Forest
Steven_Norris
Vote potentially going to more than one candidate
constituency contains a large proportion of swing voters it is often called a marginal seat and extensive campaign resources are poured into it. An April 2016 poll
Swing_vote
Australian politician (born 1958)
(as part of a statewide swing against Labor), turning Maylands into a marginal seat. Baker is openly gay, and owns a 20-acre property on the outskirts of
Lisa Baker (Australian politician)
Lisa_Baker_(Australian_politician)
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
Buninyong. As a result, it is estimated that Ripon would be a Labor marginal seat from results of the 2018 election with a margin of 2.8%. "Victorian
Electoral_district_of_Ripon
independents contested the election. The United National Congress won 26 seats, forming a majority government, with its leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar becoming
2025 Trinidad and Tobago general election
2025_Trinidad_and_Tobago_general_election
in more widespread marginality, with 31% of seats won on margins up to 10% compared with 22% in the 2019 election. The average seat majority fell from
2024 United Kingdom general election
2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
US state where no party for election has overwhelming support
electors Bellwether Blue wall (United States) Lingayen–Lucena corridor Marginal seat Missouri bellwether Purple America Red states and blue states Global
Swing_state
Australian politician and journalist
between 2009 and 2010, and again from 2012 to 2013. Coker won the ultra-marginal seat of Corangamite at the 2019 Australian federal election, defeating Liberal
Libby_Coker
result was a victory for the Unity Labour Party, which retained its one seat majority. However, the NDP has challenged the results in two constituencies
2015 Vincentian general election
2015_Vincentian_general_election
UK Parliament constituency (since 1983)
election, James Frith regained the seat which he had held for Labour from 2017 to 2019. Bury North is a marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives
Bury_North
British documentary film series (1964–present)
the 2019 general election, Hughes contested the Labour–Conservative marginal seat of Workington in Cumbria. Finishing fourth, he increased the party's
Up_(film_series)
UK Parliament constituency (since 1983)
statistics collected reflect a socially diverse seat in terms of income; this has been a highly marginal seat when national polls are close, with lower than
Bolton_North_East
State electoral district of Queensland, Australia
creation, Maiwar was estimated to be a marginal seat for the Liberal National Party with a margin of 3.0%. The seat was won by Michael Berkman of the Queensland
Electoral_district_of_Maiwar
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
Chirnside Park, Doncaster East, and Ringwood. Warrandyte was originally a marginal seat, being held by the Liberal Party from the creation of the electorate
Electoral district of Warrandyte
Electoral_district_of_Warrandyte
Former Australian politician
election with a swing of 4.1 percent. Lindsay was regarded as a key marginal seat. During her term in office, Husar sat on parliamentary committees for
Emma_Husar
British politician (born 1995)
Wellingborough - The Northamptonshire constituency was the second most marginal seat for Labour in Sir Tony Blair's 1997 landslide, with Paul Stinchcombe
Gen_Kitchen
35th Philippine senatorial election
assuming office, leaving his seat vacant until his successor is elected in the regular election. These are the marginal seats that had a winning margin of
2025 Philippine Senate election
2025_Philippine_Senate_election
UK electoral stereotype
and 2001 UK general elections. The Worcester constituency is a noted marginal seat which elected its first ever Labour MP in 1997. It subsequently returned
Worcester_woman
Australian federal electoral division
population. This turned Sturt from a three percent marginal Labor seat to a 2.4 percent marginal Liberal seat. Makin opted to transfer to Bonython, and Keith
Division_of_Sturt
Australian state election
helped in attracting multicultural votes towards the Liberal party in marginal seats that mattered. A large majority of the Victorian Indian community voted
2010_Victorian_state_election
State electoral district in Perth, Western Australia
district is located in the outer north-east of Perth. Swan Hills is a marginal seat. It has been held by the government of the day on every occasion since
Electoral district of Swan Hills
Electoral_district_of_Swan_Hills
Election for the 61st Parliament of Victoria
exposed in two marginal seats". The Age. Retrieved 30 September 2025. Everitt, Corey (1 October 2025). "Vulin will not re-contest Pakenham seat in 2026, MP
2026_Victorian_state_election
Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1885 onwards
creation in 1885. The seat, centred on Mansfield in Nottinghamshire, in recent times has been considered a relatively marginal seat. The Mansfield council
Mansfield_(constituency)
99 seats. The Coalition’s best results were in safe Liberal Party seats on Sydney’s North Shore while Labor won the battle in key marginal seats. Four
1995 New South Wales state election
1995_New_South_Wales_state_election
British Conservative politician
McFadden. Mullan was selected as the Conservative candidate for the marginal seat of Crewe and Nantwich in September 2018. At the 2019 general election
Kieran_Mullan
Australian politician
a 9-vote margin at the 2020 state election. Despite being the most marginal seat in the state, Smith managed to retain Bundaberg at the 2024 state election
Tom Smith (Queensland politician)
Tom_Smith_(Queensland_politician)
27th Philippine House of Representatives elections
violating the Omnibus Election Code, only the courts. These are the marginal seats that had a winning margin of 5% or less in the 2022 elections, in ascending
2025 Philippine House of Representatives elections
2025_Philippine_House_of_Representatives_elections
Australian politician (born 1978)
November 2006 Rishworth was preselected unopposed to contest the key marginal seat of Kingston, located in the south of Adelaide, at the 2007 federal election
Amanda_Rishworth
British politician
elected with a margin of 6 votes, which makes Runcorn and Helsby the most marginal seat in the current Parliament. Pinto-Duschinsky was previously a member
David_Pinto-Duschinsky
parties prior to the 2007 Australian federal election. The table shows seats in the Australian House of Representatives arranged in the form of a Mackerras
Pre-election pendulum for the 2007 Australian federal election
Pre-election_pendulum_for_the_2007_Australian_federal_election
Australian federal electoral division
Ballarat used to be a marginal seat, changing hands at intervals between the Labor Party and the non-Labor parties. Unlike most marginal seats, it was not a barometer
Division_of_Ballarat
UK Parliamentary by-election
after the death of the incumbent Labour MP Percy Wells. The usually marginal seat was retained by the Labour Candidate Terence Boston. F W S Craig, British
1964_Faversham_by-election
UK Parliament constituency (1983–1997)
800. Labour would go on to win the seat at every election when it was contested although it was always a marginal seat. The City of Liverpool wards of Broadgreen
Liverpool_Broadgreen
Former state electoral district of South Australia
the seat of Elder is. The 1989 boundary bordered the 2010 boundary in the south-west and north-east respectively. Mitchell tended to be a marginal Labor-held
Electoral district of Mitchell (South Australia)
Electoral_district_of_Mitchell_(South_Australia)
Australian politician (born 1968)
Labor seat into a marginal seat. Le again was unsuccessful, losing the seat by 1,768 votes after preferences, reducing the overall margin for the seat to
Dai_Le
British Conservative politician (born 1940)
of Parliament for North West Leicestershire, seen at the time as a marginal seat. He was a back-bench MP under both the Margaret Thatcher and John Major
David_Ashby
British politician and activist (born 1961)
a black vote, which he argued could influence electoral outcomes in marginal seats. These findings encouraged Woolley to launch Operation Black Vote (OBV)
Simon Woolley, Baron Woolley of Woodford
Simon_Woolley,_Baron_Woolley_of_Woodford
English actress and politician (1936–2023)
also made to her about the possibility of being a candidate for the marginal Welsh seat of Bridgend at the 1983 general election, which she turned down to
Glenda_Jackson
Ulster Unionist Party politician
for Fermanagh and South Tyrone in the 2024 general election, the most marginal seat in the United Kingdom with a Sinn Féin majority of just 56 votes over
Diana_Armstrong
Australian politician
joined the Liberal Party of Australia, and in 1966, aged 26, he won the marginal seat of Griffith in inner Brisbane, and held it against determined challenges
Donald_Milner_Cameron
British DJ, accountant, and political candidate
2003. He was the candidate for Watford in the 2005 General Election, a marginal seat, coming third with 14,634 (29.6%); The Almanac of British Politics said
Ali_Miraj
British politician (1931–2014)
Member of Parliament for Birmingham Yardley from 1970 to 1974, winning a marginal seat which was later recovered by Labour's Sydney Tierney. Whilst an MP,
Derek_Coombs
South Australian state electoral district
a marginal Labor seat, and was first contested at the 1977 state election by then Deputy Premier Des Corcoran, who had moved from the more marginal seat
Electoral_district_of_Hartley
British politician
Conservative-held seat, in which Roche came a distant third as the Labour candidate. This was followed by an unsuccessful candidacy for the marginal seat of Hornsey
Barbara_Roche
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